My answer to Carbon Tax comment

I received a comment relating to my Carbon Tax rant and since I love comments (and I really do), I wanted to prepare a thorough response. Unfortunately I got a little excited and now Blogger won't let me post it in the comment box (presumably for being too long).

So here's the comment:
Its seems this argument is a little shallow as it does not look at all the areas inluding historical factors - people in austrlia and around the world listen to so-called scientists who claim they can foretell the future when our economists could foretell the gfc, we cant even see 2 years in front of us - here we are bantering over a point less tax - which is a band aid solution as with all and most austrlian solutions - short term. if you understand the human physiology it is not difficult to understand that reward is far more plausible than punishment. We do it do our kids and pets when they are growing up - this leads to autonomous behavior which means the government can focus on larger projects/ developments. The other interesting topic I find is that the general public don't pickup history books and learn do THEIR own research and try gasp the so called climate issue. As you may learn the earth over periods of years (thousands of years) goes through cycles hot and cold. The more solar activity we have the more earth quakes and volcanic activity we have. None of which is controller able. If you think you can control it - you're greatly mistaken. A volcano can simply run for 10 days straight and product more harmful chemicals and natural co2 than an entire country of several years.

Folks like everything, make and informed decision - unlike your last election - based on hopes of change aka USA and Australia labor party.

great example - is this NBN - I've asked a lot of under 25 year old who and why they voted for in the last election here in Oz. their response - Labor - Why? cause im gonna get faster internet..." that is an uninformed decision.

Education is key!

Good luck researching folks.

And here's my response:

My argument doesn’t go into depth about climate change because there are hundreds of scientists, universities, research bodies and governments who have done that for me*. The vast majority of experts in the field of climate change have unanimously agreed that it is anthropogenic and that if we don’t do something about it soon, we are going to have a real problem on our hands.

The main argument against anthropogenic global warming comes from a mathematician with no formal scientific qualifications and – most recently – a retired palaeontologist with no expertise in the field of climate change. A lot of encouragement is also given by newspapers with a shameless and obvious agenda.
I think evaluating scientists based on the performance of economists is a strange link to make. It’s a bit like saying “how can you trust taxi drivers when bakers all over the country continue to burn my bread?” The professions aren’t linked by any universal web of relativity…that I know of.

In saying that, however, I have to defend our capable economists, because if you would have had a look at economic reports before the GFC, you would have noticed plenty of warnings about sub-prime loans and the way the system was structured. Australia has always had one of the world’s highest regulatory systems in place (hip hip to economists), which is why, to some degree, it was buffered from the worst effects. Naturally things are always better with hindsight and no economist pretends to achieve 100% accuracy, they do work with models after all.

However if you really don’t believe that economists can offer fair predictions, than I wonder why you don’t keep your money tucked away in a sock drawer? You must be aware that all financial modelling done by banks (including how the money in your savings account is invested) is performed under the advice of economists, as is the RBA’s monetary policy…and so far we all seem to be doing quite well.

The tax is not pointless. It’s not a perfect solution and it certainly isn’t as effective as an Emission Trading Scheme would be, however it will turn into one so problem solved.

I’m also not sure that you understand the structure of the tax and the ETS – the whole idea is to provide companies with economic incentives to switch to cleaner means of energy.

Whenever a company cuts down on carbon emissions it saves money by avoiding the tax. Reward. When the ETS comes in, companies that fall below their permit amount will be able to sell their left-over permits to other companies for money. Reward. Some media outlets have been spinning it pretty hard as a ruthless punishment and a way to run various industries into the ground, but that’s simply not true. The companies most affected by the tax will receive help from the government, but will also have a good fiscal reason to switch up the way they view their business.

The thing is, whether or not you believe the overwhelming amount of evidence to support anthropogenic climate change, you have to be aware that fossil fuels are running out and the switch to renewable energy is going to have to happen at some point. The tax is very small scale, but the point is that it’s a start. If structured well, the ETS will make a much bigger impact and it is a long-term solution aimed at changing behaviour. If there is a better option out there I’d love to hear about it, right now the carbon tax and the ETS are the best things going round. Mr Abbott’s idea of throwing money at selected industries and hoping that it’ll affect the future is the definition of short-sightedness – even his own party can see that.

Reading history books is great – knowledge is power and all that – but if you’d like an informed view on climate change you need to read the reports that are released on the topic. You simply cannot hope to understand the complexities of climate science by reading up on ice ages or even previous CO2 fluctuations. There are thousands of various factors involved (including the relatively recent introduction of humans) and hundreds of scientists have dedicated their lives to understanding them.

And you couldn’t be more wrong about volcanoes. According to studies performed by Gerlach (1991), Varekamp (1992), Allard (1992), Sano and Williams (1996), Marty and Tolstikhin (1998) and Gerlach (2011) among many, many others, volcano eruptions are insignificant in terms of this debate. On average, all of the world’s volcanoes release between 0.15 and 0.26 gigaton of CO2 per year (these are the most generous estimates…most experts have recorded a far lower number), whereas the anthropogenic CO2 emissions for 2010 (too early for this year) were 35 gigaton (so about 80-270 times more). In one year. So the compounding effect takes volcanoes out of any serious global warming discussions.

I can’t speak for the 25 year-olds you interviewed, but I do agree that a large part of the electorate (of all ages) doesn’t understand the issues or policies and runs with popular opinion – which switches from time to time. It is a shame that there isn’t more political dialogue going on.

Also I just wanted to say thanks for commenting, even if I don’t agree with all of your views I really do appreciate you sharing them.

*I'm too lazy to include links to the most influential and comprehensive of the reports and findings, however Wikipedia has strung together a pretty good list of scientific bodies et al. and it's a great starting point if you're interested in some further reading. 

Carbon Tax: my take

I’m sorry. I’ve tried not to get political on this blog. I’ve kept my fingers off the keyboard every time they started itching, but this raging Carbon Tax ridiculousness has really pushed me beyond my limits. I’ve been watching the progress of Australia from pseudo-sensible placid majority into media-panicked frenzied mess and it’s been swelling me up with sadness and anger all in one dangerous, sleepless, caffeinated package. And that’s bad news for everyone involved. Especially my nails.

My beef isn’t with people who stand on either side of the Carbon Tax debate. I have read a lot about the issue and I can see that there are some very strong arguments both for and against the proposed system. What I can’t abide is when ignorance and panic takes over and people start talking nonsense. Honestly Australia, it’s like watching sheep. Read, analyse, think!

Ok, so firstly to dispel a few of the more common, ill-conceived notions:

1) Global warming is real. There is no doubt. Every scientific organisation, every reputable expert in the field, and every international academic body has come to the conclusion that we are undoubtedly affecting the earth in a cataclysmic kind of way.

You might not be aware of this because in a bid to be objective, the Australian media has grossly misrepresented the two sides of the argument, making it sound like they are equal. They are not. The media has been sorely criticised for its inability to be truly objective (hey journalists, objective doesn’t mean 50:50, it means reporting the facts without spin). But don’t worry, it hasn’t noticed and continues to plough on, destroying the credibility of something that is so vital for our future.

2) Australia has the world’s highest per capita carbon dioxide emissions from energy use. It turns out that having three bathrooms, two fridges, air-conditioning in every room and electric blankets buzzing along whenever the weather drops below 15 degrees Celsius is having an effect. And it’s outrageous that Australians can feel affronted by the reality that carbon must be cut – whether that’s to be done by a carbon tax or another system somebody is going to have to pay.

3) The carbon tax is not a tax on air! It’s a Pigovian tax on the negative effects of carbon dioxide. Our current high levels of emissions are going to have a very detrimental effect on the cost that Australia will have to bear in the future (both financial and environmental). This tax is roughly evaluating the cost of each ton of carbon. Whether the measurements are right is anybody’s guess – it is a thing incredibly hard to measure and the experts really struggle with estimates; at this stage nobody can give a straight and sure answer.

4) It doesn’t matter what percentage of carbon is in the atmosphere. It’s not about percentages, but the effect. If I hear one more moron compare the amount of carbon to a piece of hair on a bridge, I am going to snap and, really, I think that’ll be a dark day for everyone.

5) The Great Depression 2.0 is not going to hit – only 0.02% of Australia’s 3 billion businesses are going to be affected. And that’s the top 500 polluters. And if you’ve found your way into those top 500 polluters, you deserve to pay because you are destroying our planet, and the effects are going to be much more expensive than $23 per ton of CO2. Whether the tax will have any kind of real effect is a worthy argument. Most economists say yes, but mainly on the industry. The majority maintain that households will be largely unaffected.

6) Spending money on short-term solutions isn’t really going to help. As it is, Australia isn’t making the effort that the rest of the developed world is. Taxing businesses to discourage environmentally-harmful behaviour, while earning extra revenue which can be put towards further environmental measures isn’t a bad thing – what the government will actually do with the money is a whole other issue all together (and one we need to stay on top of).

So now time for the real pros and cons. Quick disclaimer: I’m no economist, so these are what I make of the issue based on what I’ve read about it:

The pros of the tax are:

* It puts a limit on things. Finally. We need to start setting limits.
* It will encourage businesses to use less energy and reduce emissions in a controlled environment.
* It is going to take immediate effect as of July 2012. The speed of reaction is important in the environmental debate.
* It’s simple. Clear and simple.
* We know exactly what the cost will be over the following three to five years (after which it’ll move into an Emissions Trading Scheme, which has been supported by the majority of economists), which means it will be stable and predictable for businesses and consumers in this interim.
* It is a transparent system that will be harder to manipulate and bend by the worst culprits**
* It covers everybody at once, rather than separately across various sectors (as will need to be done when the ETS gets introduced), making it easier to fit into an international strategy.
* The revenue which is earned through the tax can be re-invested into further improving emissions targets and slowing the effect of global warming or compensating lower-socio-demographic groups who may be the most adversely affected.

I’d also like to add that several prominent economists have supported the carbon tax and it has been introduced in various guises in several countries, mostly in Europe. The Scandinavian countries led the charge in the 90s, and their carbon emissions have been greatly reduced. In 2000, the Finnish government put out a report stating that CO2 emissions had been reduced by about four million metric tons between 1990 and 1998 (roughly 7%), Sweden and Denmark reported cuts of approximately 15%, while Norway’s latest figures have been inconclusive due to interfering factors, including growth.

Naturally there are disadvantages:

*There are big question marks around how successful the tax will actually be in reducing emissions; firstly is it on a scale grand enough to make a difference, secondly is it structured in the best way possible, and thirdly will Australians reduce their emissions, or will they just budget around the extra costs?
*The tax may need to go through several phases and changes, and this could add costs to the process.
*The international competitiveness of Australian businesses (which might have to carry extra cost) and Australia for international businesses, might be reduced, causing economic repercussions. However this is thought to be unlikely.
***While it isn’t as easily manipulated, lobby groups in other countries, including Finland, have managed to reduce the taxes paid by certain sectors, making parts of the tax kind of irrelevant. Whether this will happen in Australia remains to be seen.
*The majority of economists – internationally and nationally – support the notion of an ETS over a tax, so there might be no need to introduce the tax for the first three to five years, when we can just hop straight to a potentially better solution.
*There is a chance that the tax will hit lower-income households harder, depending on a variety of factors.
*It’s a tax, and nobody likes those.

So these are my two pieces. I think it’s great to have debate, so long as we are debating the right factors and not just spreading nonsense – this issue is far too vital for us to take it lightly or just eat up media and government nonsense.

Pretty crier

Two nights ago I watched the finale of Germany’s Next Top Model. And wow... that show makes me want to slap food out of my own hand like, “Agnes, do you really need to jam that entire suckling pig into your mouth all at once like that?!” (Obviously yes or why would I have built a fire and set up a spit in the middle of the living room?)

So yeah, if you ever invite me to your house with the intention of showing me models, expect for things to get freaky. I do not get separated from food without a battle. Also if I accidentally slap you with a crowbar, I’m really sorry.

What I wasn’t prepared for when watching said reality TV show with said models, was the rude way in which the finalists looked stunning while having emotional breakdowns. THE NERVE!

As far as I’m concerned, crying is the domain of flared nostrils, contorted constipation faces and drool. When I cry, I look like an enraged piglet: wrinkly and pink and covered in slobber.  My face turns deep red, its muscles contract and twitch like epileptic seniors at a rave party and then my body releases an irrepressible, endless torrent of snot.

Oh the snot! It gushes from everywhere – my nose, my eyes, my mouth, my ears...and the next thing you know I’m in a kind of slimy clear cocoon, shaking, moaning and scaring all of the passengers on my bus.

But if I could just harness the ability to produce it at will, I could do some real good in the world. It is Niagara Falls powerful, so I should be able to at least find an alternative means of renewable energy or something. It could work like this:

We’re going to save the world, my gushing snot and I. And what have models ever done? Aside from making life beautiful with legs that connect to their chins, that is?

A somewhat delayed letter to Alanis Morisset

Sweetie-pie horse-face,

Not ironic: An old man turned ninety-eight, he won the lottery and died the next day.

Ironic: The old man died after investing his lottery money in an experimental procedure to extend his lifespan.

Nor ironic: It's a black fly in your Chardonnay

Ironic: You’re on the moon, because you’re allergic to insects and have gone to extreme lengths to avoid contact with them.

Not ironic: It's a death row pardon two minutes too late

Ironic: The person performing the execution is the one you were convicted of murdering.

Not ironic: It's like rain on your wedding day

Ironic: You’re a fish (and are having your wedding underwater).

Not ironic: It's a free ride when you've already paid

Ironic: You paid for a cab because you thought it would be safer than getting into the car with your boyfriend. The cab crashed and now your boyfriend is giving you a free ride to the hospital.

Not ironic: It's the good advice that you just didn't take.

Ironic: The advice was “take good advice”.

Not ironic: Mr. Play It Safe was afraid to fly, He packed his suitcase and kissed his kids goodbye, He waited his whole damn life to take that flight, And as the plane crashed down he thought, "Well isn't this nice..."

Ironic: He did find it nice.

Not ironic: A traffic jam when you're already late
Ironic: You’re late to deliver a traffic report.

Not ironic: A no-smoking sign on your cigarette break
Ironic: You work for a cigarette company and the official slogan is “How fast are you smoking now?”

Not ironic: It's like ten thousand spoons when all you need is a knife
Ironic: You’re at “Knives ‘r’ Us”

Not ironic: It's meeting the man of my dreams. And then meeting his beautiful wife
Ironic: The dream man is repulsed by the way you look. His wife is your identical twin with whom you were separated at birth.

Ironic: You write a song about irony that contains a series of examples which contain no irony in them.

So, well done...

A rebellion against sentographs

Using only the most irritating anti-grammatical structure, which doesn’t reflect the true potential of the English language nor actually inspires anyone to do anything, Sentographs (a term coined by combining “Sentence” with “Paragraph” both in capital letters, because that’s just how Sentograph writers - or Sentographers if you will - roll) are a unique combination of a lack of vision, loss of creativity and failure in writing ability, disguised under a mantle of denial on the part of the author.

Starbucks drinkers beware!

Today, a propos nothing in particular Mark sent me a link to this story: Catch A Cheating Spouse With An iPhone Tracking App

and a brief explanation:

“I think setting this up would be a good idea. Not because I think you’re cheating but if something goes wrong I can find you.”

This seemed like a perfectly noble gesture, so I took the liberty of reading the article. Which I think should be re-named “the rantings of a paranoid salesman”.

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Saving the environment...in a roundabout way

Can I just set the record straight? Because I’d really like to. I’d really like to impart my wisdom on the ears of anyone who will listen…or on the eyes of someone who just accidentally stumbled onto this site. Hello there. You are welcome here. I like llamas but also strangers.

But I’m getting distracted.

Last night I went to visit my sister. This sounds pretty harmless, but what you’ve got to remember is that both of us are crazy. More dangerously, when we get together we allow our neuroticism to come slivering out.

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Abandon ship!

Quite a lot has happened since I was last on here. For one, my electorate completely ignored me and all common sense and voted for Joe Hockey. I mean, really?

Secondly, we’ve got a hung government on our hands and the fate of the country rests on three independents. Conservative independents. But I harbour some hope because they have promised to do what’s best for the nation and none of them have said that they will favour a backwards system that ignores infrastructure and throws billions of dollars towards middle-class welfare. I remain naively optimistic.

My guess is that everyone has heard and said everything there is to be heard and said about the election. And I don’t really have anything (much) to add.

What has been getting a bit of press – but not in the right direction – is the country’s youngest parliamentarian. Wyatt Roy is twenty years old and for now holds 52% of the vote in the seat of Longman.

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I’m not going to tell you who…

…but there is someone who I see on a semi-regular basis and their voice drives me mad. Absolutely bonkers. The voice is so bad that I find myself wondering what would happen if I restrained it using gaffer tape. You know, aside from the explosion of thunderous applause from everyone within hearing distance.

I know. I’m a bitch. But seriously, you haven’t heard “the voice”. The voice is worse than Shelly Craft’s face. And that woman’s elastic smile makes me want to douse the world in sorbolene. Whenever I see her making toothy love to the camera, I wait for the inevitable moment when her cheeks snap and her smile is free to go on a stabbing frenzy. Sorbolene anyone?

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Nothing shouts "move!" quite like a fork up the arse

There is very little in this world that irritates me, that causes me to loose my shit, as much as slow people. I may have mentioned this before or maybe I haven’t, but if this internet relationship is going to go any further, you need to know that I am among the most impatient people on the planet.

I hope you can accept me for who I am. A part of the blame goes to the genes my mother gave me, a part to my neuroticism and finally a part to logic because, really, who needs to move that slowly? If you need ten minutes to mount one step at the train station, I suggest you inch your way towards the middle of the street and ease yourself under the wheels of a bus. Or I might just ease you there with the use of a kitchen utensil.

Too brutal? Let me tell you a little story that may make you look a little more kindly on my dark soul:

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Hater of feet walks

I’ve tried to devise witty ways to say it, but I think the original is just the best. I quit my job. I quit. I resigned. I am unemployed. I am a worthless unemployed bum hoping to find success in the kindness of others. And I am gleeful. Filled up to my nostrils will glee.

It wasn’t always this way. An hour before I made my announcement I was in absolute nail-biting compulsive-emailing agony. For me telling an employer that I’m leaving is just about the most horrid thing in the world. Almost as horrid as feet.

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Agnes vs The Shower

I have found a new mortal enemy. I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say that the shower at Mark’s parents’ place is trying to kill me. Every morning the bathroom turns into a martial arts movie with me starring as the foolhardy bandit who steps in the way and the shower playing the role of the unassuming hero who beats the shit out of me.

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Hard to concentrate

On Tuesday, at some indecent hour of the morning, I found out what interferes more with one’s concentration than Mark speaking in nondescript half-sentences. Out of nowhere Whamo! Bang! Ka Pow! my bottom molar beat up my gums and started a war.

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Stop with the PM bullshit already!

So I know that you’re probably over the news that we have a new (female) Prime Minister. But it is big news. Whoever thought that someone with a vagina could rule? Believe me, it’s been a massive shock for loads of news teams, which have been sputtering garbage ever since they found out.

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I fear:

1. That Tony Abbot will win the next election.
2. That the people of Australia will be so focused on K-Rudd being forced out of his position that they won’t notice all of the good policies – like the mining tax – that still exist within the Labor party. 

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A pattern

Bring your face to the screen. Now look really closely. If you’re a keen observer then you’ll notice that there is a pattern forming.

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Whaaaa….?

Maybe it’s my Friday brain setting in early or maybe I’m just high on cherry coke, but the thing is that I followed a link to a story entitled “Facebook addicts can't relate, says scientist Susan Greenfield” seeking to be enlightened. Considering the banal overly-descriptive headline, I assumed that the article would tell me about the effects of facebook on its users. Boy was I wrong.

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Mortified!

Want to talk about embarrassing?

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Welcome to my personal hell

So here’s the thing: I have curly hair and it has been raining for a good week now. Anybody with straight hair just flicked their tresses over their shoulder and looked out the window, “Really? It’s been raining? How weird that I didn’t notice”.

Anybody with curly hair just sighed and once again tried to ram their way through the door of the elevator. Didn’t work? Don’t worry, the air-con will eventually kill off the dampness, the hair will drop a fraction and you can get back onto stable ground.

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Finally real entertainment courtesy of Justin

Right, so I’m guessing you know who Justin Bieber is, right? You know, the pubescent ball of hair with the voice of a woman? The one that looks like he stumbled out of bed, past his kindergarten building, through a wind tunnel and onto your television screen?


You’re nodding your head and showing off your Supree “I love Justin” shirt? Good, then we’re on the same page…well not really, but at least you know who I’m talking about. We’ll address your poor fashion/music taste later.

For now I’d like to inform you that I’ve just discovered the most delightful thing:

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